Looking forward…

Udo Gollub summarized his impressions from visiting Singularity University summit in Berlin on April 20-21, 2016 and posted them on Facebook. The presenters on the summit (and Udo) try to look into the future. They made many very specific predictions. I liked and could relate to several of them, so here I reprint some of Udo’s thoughts and add a few of my own comments.

There is an app called “moodies” which can already tell in which mood you are. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying.

Well, it turned out that scientists in China have developed a polygraph already that combines artificial intelligence with facial recognition.

The advantages of the new method is that it does not require attaching sensors to the body of the person and that it can be applied even without person’s physical presence. Imagine a political debate when those watching them on TV can analyze how truthful is each of the debate participants.

There will be companies that will build a medical device (called the “Tricorder” from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breathe into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease.

It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.

First diagnostic, then a new method of medicine delivery, and we can eliminate any decease anywhere.

In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don’t want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving.

Our kids (or grand kids, for some of us) will never get a driver’s license and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks. Or we can build more business temples of insurance companies. But these insurance companies will not be offering car insurance anymore, because there will be no accidents.

Electric cars won’t become mainstream until 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electric.

Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean.

Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact.

Last year, more solar energy devices were installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.

In the US, young lawyers already don’t get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.

So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses.

Facebook now has a pattern recognition software DeepFace that can recognize faces better than humans.

By 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time. That’s why discussions and even attempts to implement universal basic income are on the way. I plan to dedicate a post to this idea too.

The first Petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow-produced veal in 2018.

Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don’t need that space anymore.

There are several startups that will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as “alternative protein source” (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

As for me, I see it this way: have you ever visited meat production factory?

O’Toole cites the following statement Joseph Chamberlain made in 1898:

I think that you will all agree that we are living in most interesting times. (Hear, hear.) I never remember myself a time in which our history was so full, in which day by day brought us new objects of interest, and, let me say also, new objects for anxiety. (Hear, hear.)

P.S. As soon as I published this article, the following news came in on June 16, 2016.

Starting today, self-driving Olli will be operating on public streets of National Harbor, Maryland — the home of Local Motors’ new facility — and will be available for public use over the next few months. Just get in, say “Downtown, please!”, and Olli will get you there.

Even more, the vehicle was 3D-printed! The company is able to print a vehicle in about 10 hours and assemble it in another hour.

They are also looking at “micro-factories” that could opensource the building of future designs. In fact, the use of 3D printing allows designs based on what individual customers want, and lacks the large infrastructure costs of traditional automakers.

There are plans to manufacture more of these vehicles to be tested and potentially deployed on public roads in Las Vegas and Miami-Dade County in Florida by the end of 2016.

“There is no reason anyone would want
a computer in their home.”
— Ken Olson, president, chairman
and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977