Bill Gates predicts

He reads a lot and hangs around smart folks. So, when Bill Gates predicts (see this publication in the World Economic Forum), I listen. And positive outlook of his predictions warms my heart:

– eradication of polio by 2019;

– domination of renewable energy by 2030;

– absolute poverty elimination by 2035.

But the danger of bioterrorism is real, and “Gates and his foundation have made widespread vaccination one of their top priorities around the world.”

He also talks about the loss of jobs because of the automation and suggests to fix it by taxing the robots. I trust he knows what he is talking about and I hope his solution will fix the problem. So, life looks promising, despite all the challenges.

Yet, the problem of the lost jobs reminds me what I have read about the Industrial Revolution of XIX century. The self-sustaining households could not compete with the cheap serial industrial production, and millions of people (with the variety of skills necessary for keeping up the farm and the household) became the labor force, most of them low qualified, not able to respond to the needs (growing in sophistication) of the modern production process. The city slams grew until social programs were established and help them out – with money and education.

Today those, who lose their jobs to automation, are in similar situation. The proposed unified basic income as the way to keep such people above the poverty line might not work, because giving away so much money can increase inflation. The more promising way out, in my opinion, is the improvement of the quality of education for children and adults. Not just more of the same curriculum we have since Ancient Greece, but more relevant skills and knowledge and faster and more efficient process. Also, the cultural shift from “having” to “be able” is necessary. The joy of knowledge and ability to make things can be shared and is more sustainable than the joy of having, especially after the basic needs are covered, don’t you agree?

In doctor’s office.
– Alcohol ?
– No.
– Smoking ?
– No.
– Gambling ?
– Never did.
– Women ?
– Only my wife.
– So, no any weakness, ah ?
– Well, I have one.
– No kidding? What’s that?
– I am lying. A lot.