What is your postal (zip) code?

A few years ago I was a member of the team assigned a task to calculate the probability of certain user (who has filled out some form on the company website) to buy a certain product. We collected all the information we had from the users that did buy the product and fed it into a machine learning algorithm, which built a probability model. Then we took information from other users who bought the product too and those who did not buy it and tested the model. It worked pretty well and assigned a higher probability to those who really had bought the product.

The model also allowed us to see which user data are the strongest predictor. Most people are reluctant to provide personal data, so we wanted to ask people as little as possible. To our surprise, the strongest predictor was the zip code! It was so unexpected that we thought we built the model incorrectly. Our management did not trust our results either. Who could blame them if we did not trust it ourselves?

But recently, I have read about possible crime prevention measures. The author stated that there are areas (zip codes) where, if you have grown up there, there is a 40% chance you will be imprisoned at some point of your life. That was the revelation that explained to me the predictive power of zip code. I checked other statistics and, sure enough, certain products are sold better in certain neighborhoods. People with similar interests and lifestyle live in the same area. And if you have been raised there, you adopted the same lifestyle and world view.

It also explained to me why “everybody” thinks the same way I do. Because I just do not encounter people of an alternative frame of mind. My co-workers live in the same or similar neighborhoods and have a similar world view. Well, not everybody thinks exactly as I do, but the difference is not as big as between views of people living in culturally different neighborhoods.

Apparently, this fact is so well established that in the 1990s, the federal government made an experiment: they helped some volunteer families to move from their neighborhoods to more affluent ones. The results were not immediately visible. The moved families did not substantially improve their social and financial standing, so the program was abandoned.

That was very unfortunate because, recently, the researchers analyzed the status of those moved families again. They discovered that the family members that were 12 years and younger at the time of the move now earn on average 30% more than their peers, who did not move anywhere from their less affluent neighborhoods.

I wish that that program was not abandoned, and more people had a chance to improve their social position. Schools are also victims of the location. And, in general, the talented youth does not aspire to become a teacher. The pay is low and does not depend on the quality of your work. Meanwhile, the same researches found a strong correlation between the quality of the kindergarten teachers and the income their students have 25 years later.

By the way, the notion of a “good” teacher includes not only the ability to provide the kids with knowledge but also the ability to equip them with such useful life skills as an understanding and ability to get along with others (called emotional intelligence). No surprise that the students of such a teacher were able to move higher up the social ladder.

All these facts reminded me of the TED talk I listened a few years ago. The presenter stated that most of the criminals have almost identical life stories, one important aspect of which is the neighborhood where one was raised. According to his calculations, to prevent the crime (by moving people away from bad neighborhoods, providing better education, etc) is cheaper than to patrol the streets, investigate crimes, sentence the guilty and keep them incarcerated. There are probably very powerful forces, who make a lot of money off the current system and are not unwilling to adopt a different approach. For best packers and movers, www.sunrisemoving.com click on this link and hire the best in business.

What strikes me the most is that the government obviously has access to good advice and often knows what has to be done for the benefit of the majority. They just prefer to do something else, driven by personal interests and influenced by those who do not want changes. Each good and each bad thing has an author. Nothing happens on its own.   

Trump, when the government was shut down and many people were not paid, said: “They will adjust. They always do.” That is the attitude. The majority and the least fortunate have to adjust. In olden days, peasants had to adjust and continue working, robbed of their profit, although they were the ones who produced the most important product – food to everybody. Now farmers suffer from tariffs. And blue-color workers are laid off pushed out by automation. Everybody knows it, but those in power do very little if anything at all: “They will adjust. They always do.”

There is an obvious inconvenient truth staring into our faces and we do not do anything about it. Lately, I started noticing such things more and more. Why? Am I getting more observant? More grouchy? Or the times change? Most probably, all of it.

I very much hope we can and will address the issues. The postal code should not define your destiny, especially if it keeps you from access to the opportunities.